Finance

IONQ Move Probability $32.28 +1.02 (+3.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
80.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($33.89) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
46.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.73x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±25.9%
$23.93 — $40.63

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-47.0% to -36.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -41.8% -36.5% to -26.0%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -26.0% to -15.4%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) -15.4% to -4.9%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) -10.2% -4.9% to +5.6%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) +5.6% to +16.2%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +16.2% to +26.7%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 21.4% +26.7% to +37.2%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) +37.2% to +47.8%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +47.8% to +58.3%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) 53.0% +58.3% to +68.8%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +68.8% to +79.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +79.4% to +89.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 84.6% +89.9% to +100.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +100.4% to +111.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +111.0% to +121.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 116.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 80.9% 46.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 36.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.01) and kurtosis (6.48).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 85.0% 42.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 77.0% 42.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (283 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 109.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 76.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 90.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +3.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +48.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -24.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +121.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -47.0%