Finance

IART Move Probability $11.81 -1.49 (-11.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($12.41) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.93x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.0%
$10.05 — $13.58

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-30.9% to -26.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -28.5% -26.1% to -21.3%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -21.3% to -16.5%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -16.5% to -11.7%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -14.1% -11.7% to -6.9%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -6.9% to -2.1%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) -2.1% to +2.7%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) 0.3% +2.7% to +7.5%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) +7.5% to +12.3%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +12.3% to +17.1%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) 14.7% +17.1% to +21.9%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +21.9% to +26.7%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +26.7% to +31.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 29.1% +31.5% to +36.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +36.3% to +41.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +41.1% to +45.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 43.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.9% 34.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 26.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.82) and kurtosis (11.7).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.4% 37.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.9% 37.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (107 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 63.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 102.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 45.3%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+62% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +45.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -30.9%