Finance

HUM Move Probability $424.64 -3.50 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
6.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($445.87) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
3.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.94x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.9%
$412.15 — $437.13

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 500 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-21.1% to -19.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -20.1% -19.0% to -16.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -16.9% to -14.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -14.8% to -12.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -13.8% -12.7% to -10.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -10.6% to -8.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -8.6% to -6.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -7.5% -6.5% to -4.4%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -4.4% to -2.3%: 49 occurrences (9.8%) -2.3% to -0.2%: 139 occurrences (27.8%) -1.2% -0.2% to +1.9%: 187 occurrences (37.4%) +1.9% to +4.0%: 76 occurrences (15.2%) +4.0% to +6.1%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) 5.1% +6.1% to +8.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +8.2% to +10.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +10.3% to +12.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 11.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 6.2% 3.2% Model-free reality across 500 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.93) and kurtosis (10.58).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 9.7% 4.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 6.8% 3.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (336 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 46.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 53.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +12.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -21.1%