Finance

HUM Move Probability $425.42 -1.96 (-0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($446.69) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
39.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.65x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.0%
$378.60 — $472.24

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.1% to -29.4%: 10 occurrences (2.1%) -31.8% -29.4% to -24.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -24.6% to -19.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -19.9% to -15.1%: 17 occurrences (3.5%) -17.5% -15.1% to -10.4%: 29 occurrences (6.0%) -10.4% to -5.6%: 59 occurrences (12.1%) -5.6% to -0.9%: 66 occurrences (13.6%) -3.3% -0.9% to +3.8%: 81 occurrences (16.6%) +3.8% to +8.6%: 85 occurrences (17.5%) +8.6% to +13.3%: 50 occurrences (10.3%) 11.0% +13.3% to +18.1%: 38 occurrences (7.8%) +18.1% to +22.8%: 20 occurrences (4.1%) +22.8% to +27.6%: 14 occurrences (2.9%) 25.2% +27.6% to +32.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +32.3% to +37.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +37.1% to +41.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 39.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.3% 39.6% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.93) and kurtosis (10.58).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 65.8% 32.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.6% 46.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (328 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 46.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 53.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +41.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.1%