Finance

HBIA Move Probability $46.76 +0.01 (+0.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
12.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($49.10) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 9 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
8.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.40x
You are 1.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±4.6%
$44.59 — $48.93

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-10.1% to -8.5%: 11 occurrences (2.3%) -9.3% -8.5% to -6.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -6.9% to -5.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -5.4% to -3.8%: 22 occurrences (4.5%) -4.6% -3.8% to -2.2%: 24 occurrences (4.9%) -2.2% to -0.6%: 64 occurrences (13.1%) -0.6% to +0.9%: 150 occurrences (30.8%) 0.1% +0.9% to +2.5%: 89 occurrences (18.3%) +2.5% to +4.1%: 42 occurrences (8.6%) +4.1% to +5.7%: 48 occurrences (9.9%) 4.9% +5.7% to +7.2%: 11 occurrences (2.3%) +7.2% to +8.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +8.8% to +10.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 9.6% +10.4% to +12.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +12.0% to +13.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +13.6% to +15.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 14.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 12.3% 8.8% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (2.35) and kurtosis (36.9).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 29.4% 14.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 19.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 2.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 7.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-86% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +4.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +15.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -10.1%