Finance

FUN Move Probability $9.98 -1.94 (-16.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
63.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.48) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
24.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.60x
You are 2.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.7%
$8.52 — $11.45

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-13 to 2026-10-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-46.2% to -41.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -43.9% -41.7% to -37.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -37.2% to -32.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -32.7% to -28.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -30.5% -28.2% to -23.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -23.7% to -19.3%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -19.3% to -14.8%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -17.0% -14.8% to -10.3%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -10.3% to -5.8%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -5.8% to -1.3%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) -3.5% -1.3% to +3.2%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +3.2% to +7.7%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +7.7% to +12.2%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) 9.9% +12.2% to +16.7%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +16.7% to +21.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +21.2% to +25.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 23.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 63.0% 24.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 33.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.51) and kurtosis (4.62).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.9% 37.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.2% 25.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (290 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 62.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 80.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 49.0%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -46.2%