Finance

FNF Move Probability $40.62 +0.12 (+0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
35.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($42.65) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
17.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.3%
$38.05 — $43.18

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.5% to -15.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -16.6% -15.6% to -13.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -13.7% to -11.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -11.8% to -10.0%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -10.9% -10.0% to -8.1%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -8.1% to -6.2%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -6.2% to -4.3%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -5.2% -4.3% to -2.4%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) -2.4% to -0.5%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -0.5% to +1.4%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) 0.5% +1.4% to +3.3%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +3.3% to +5.2%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +5.2% to +7.1%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 6.2% +7.1% to +9.0%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +9.0% to +10.9%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +10.9% to +12.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 11.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 35.2% 17.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.6) and kurtosis (2.17).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 43.9% 22.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 39.6% 20.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (417 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 26.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 29.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.0%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +12.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -17.5%