Finance

ECHO Move Probability $92.75 +6.31 (+7.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
15.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($97.38) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
7.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.00x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±4.8%
$88.26 — $97.23

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.2% to -11.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -14.5% -11.7% to -6.3%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -6.3% to -0.8%: 172 occurrences (33.0%) -0.8% to +4.7%: 283 occurrences (54.3%) 1.9% +4.7% to +10.1%: 33 occurrences (6.3%) +10.1% to +15.6%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) +15.6% to +21.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 18.3% +21.1% to +26.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +26.5% to +32.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +32.0% to +37.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 34.7% +37.5% to +43.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +43.0% to +48.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +48.4% to +53.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 51.2% +53.9% to +59.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +59.4% to +64.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +64.8% to +70.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 67.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 15.4% 7.7% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.44) and kurtosis (36.33).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 31.4% 15.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 15.1% 8.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (278 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 76.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 49.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 52.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +4.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +70.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -17.2%