Finance

ECHO Move Probability $92.75 +6.31 (+7.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($97.38) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.13x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.1%
$75.95 — $109.54

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.9% to -14.3%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -21.6% -14.3% to +0.2%: 221 occurrences (43.5%) +0.2% to +14.8%: 156 occurrences (30.7%) +14.8% to +29.3%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) 22.0% +29.3% to +43.9%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +43.9% to +58.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +58.4% to +73.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 65.7% +73.0% to +87.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +87.5% to +102.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +102.1% to +116.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 109.4% +116.6% to +131.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +131.2% to +145.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +145.7% to +160.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 153.0% +160.3% to +174.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +174.8% to +189.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +189.4% to +203.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 196.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.3% 33.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 5.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.44) and kurtosis (36.33).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 78.8% 39.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.5% 33.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (265 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 76.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 49.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 52.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +203.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.9%