Finance

DVN Move Probability $49.88 -0.51 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
58.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($52.37) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.96x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.9%
$45.42 — $54.33

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.6% to -22.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -24.0% -22.4% to -19.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -19.2% to -16.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -16.0% to -12.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -14.5% -12.9% to -9.7%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -9.7% to -6.5%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -6.5% to -3.3%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) -4.9% -3.3% to -0.2%: 108 occurrences (21.3%) -0.2% to +3.0%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) +3.0% to +6.2%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 4.6% +6.2% to +9.4%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +9.4% to +12.6%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +12.6% to +15.7%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 14.1% +15.7% to +18.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +18.9% to +22.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +22.1% to +25.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 23.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 58.7% 29.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.41) and kurtosis (6.26).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 58.5% 29.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.9% 28.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (336 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 30.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-28% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.6%