Finance

CWVX Move Probability $8.23 -3.66 (-30.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
64.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.64) at least once during 2 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 2
Expiration Close Probability
34.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 2-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.84x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±25.1%
$6.17 — $10.29

Historical 2-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 2-day percentage returns over 315 historical windows (2025-07-14 to 2026-10-14). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-57.7% to -0.2%: 167 occurrences (53.0%) -28.9% -0.2% to +57.4%: 141 occurrences (44.8%) +57.4% to +115.0%: 3 occurrences (1.0%) +115.0% to +172.6%: 2 occurrences (0.6%) 143.8% +172.6% to +230.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +230.1% to +287.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +287.7% to +345.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 316.5% +345.3% to +402.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +402.9% to +460.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +460.4% to +518.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 489.2% +518.0% to +575.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +575.6% to +633.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +633.2% to +690.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 661.9% +690.7% to +748.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +748.3% to +805.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +805.9% to +863.5%: 2 occurrences (0.6%) 834.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 64.1% 34.9% Model-free reality across 315 historical 2-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 2.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (6.18) and kurtosis (73.37).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.6% 42.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 66.7% 38.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (207 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 281.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 163.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 130.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-42% vs baseline)

2-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +25.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -20.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (2d): +863.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (2d): -57.7%