Finance

CWVX Move Probability $8.23 -3.66 (-30.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
89.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.64) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
43.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.05x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±66.3%
$2.78 — $13.68

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 303 historical windows (2025-07-14 to 2026-10-14). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-64.2% to +68.1%: 267 occurrences (88.1%) 2.0% +68.1% to +200.3%: 22 occurrences (7.3%) +200.3% to +332.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +332.5% to +464.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 398.6% +464.8% to +597.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +597.0% to +729.2%: 3 occurrences (1.0%) +729.2% to +861.4%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 795.3% +861.4% to +993.7%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) +993.7% to +1125.9%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) +1125.9% to +1258.1%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 1192.0% +1258.1% to +1390.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1390.4% to +1522.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1522.6% to +1654.8%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) 1588.7% +1654.8% to +1787.1%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) +1787.1% to +1919.3%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) +1919.3% to +2051.5%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 1985.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 89.1% 43.6% Model-free reality across 303 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (6.18) and kurtosis (73.37).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 94.1% 47.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 87.8% 45.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (196 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 281.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 163.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 130.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-42% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +79.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -43.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2051.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -64.2%