Finance

CVX Move Probability $226.76 +1.10 (+0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
44.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($238.10) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.66x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.7%
$213.76 — $239.76

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.1% to -17.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -18.9% -17.8% to -15.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -15.5% to -13.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -13.2% to -10.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -12.1% -10.9% to -8.6%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -8.6% to -6.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -6.4% to -4.1%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -5.2% -4.1% to -1.8%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -1.8% to +0.5%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) +0.5% to +2.8%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) 1.6% +2.8% to +5.1%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) +5.1% to +7.3%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) +7.3% to +9.6%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) 8.5% +9.6% to +11.9%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +11.9% to +14.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +14.2% to +16.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 15.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 44.1% 26.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 13.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.83) and kurtosis (4.13).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 39.5% 19.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 42.7% 27.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (363 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 24.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 18.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 19.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-23% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +16.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.1%