Finance

CTKB Move Probability $5.50 +0.17 (+3.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($5.78) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.94x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.3%
$4.66 — $6.34

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.5% to -31.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -33.8% -31.2% to -25.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -25.8% to -20.4%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -20.4% to -15.1%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -17.7% -15.1% to -9.7%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -9.7% to -4.3%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -4.3% to +1.1%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) -1.6% +1.1% to +6.4%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +6.4% to +11.8%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) +11.8% to +17.2%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) 14.5% +17.2% to +22.5%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +22.5% to +27.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +27.9% to +33.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 30.6% +33.3% to +38.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +38.6% to +44.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +44.0% to +49.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 46.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.7% 34.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.18) and kurtosis (12.03).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 75.0% 37.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 65.9% 34.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (343 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 64.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 55.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 49.3%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +19.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +49.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.5%