Finance

COP Move Probability $145.69 -0.25 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
54.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($152.97) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.94x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.6%
$134.57 — $156.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-18.4% to -16.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -17.3% -16.2% to -14.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -14.0% to -11.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -11.8% to -9.7%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -10.8% -9.7% to -7.5%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -7.5% to -5.3%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -5.3% to -3.1%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) -4.2% -3.1% to -0.9%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) -0.9% to +1.2%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +1.2% to +3.4%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) 2.3% +3.4% to +5.6%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) +5.6% to +7.8%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) +7.8% to +10.0%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) 8.9% +10.0% to +12.2%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +12.2% to +14.3%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +14.3% to +16.5%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 15.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 54.9% 28.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.61) and kurtosis (3.97).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 52.3% 26.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 45.7% 20.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (265 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 32.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 22.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 24.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-31% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +16.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -18.4%