Finance

CDNL Move Probability $16.48 -2.13 (-11.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($17.30) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
43.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.71x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±23.9%
$12.54 — $20.42

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 198 historical windows (2025-12-10 to 2026-10-14). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-49.3% to -42.7%: 3 occurrences (1.5%) -46.0% -42.7% to -36.1%: 3 occurrences (1.5%) -36.1% to -29.5%: 11 occurrences (5.6%) -29.5% to -22.9%: 4 occurrences (2.0%) -26.2% -22.9% to -16.2%: 27 occurrences (13.6%) -16.2% to -9.6%: 16 occurrences (8.1%) -9.6% to -3.0%: 28 occurrences (14.1%) -6.3% -3.0% to +3.6%: 17 occurrences (8.6%) +3.6% to +10.2%: 12 occurrences (6.1%) +10.2% to +16.9%: 19 occurrences (9.6%) 13.5% +16.9% to +23.5%: 16 occurrences (8.1%) +23.5% to +30.1%: 11 occurrences (5.6%) +30.1% to +36.7%: 11 occurrences (5.6%) 33.4% +36.7% to +43.3%: 14 occurrences (7.1%) +43.3% to +49.9%: 2 occurrences (1.0%) +49.9% to +56.6%: 4 occurrences (2.0%) 53.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.2% 43.4% Model-free reality across 198 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 39.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.19) and kurtosis (11.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 83.8% 41.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 71.2% 37.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (111 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 101.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 99.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 70.9%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +36.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -23.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +56.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -49.3%