Finance

CARV Move Probability $1.43 -0.19 (-11.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.50) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.52x
You are 1.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.8%
$1.14 — $1.71

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 355 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-03-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-58.2% to -49.4%: 9 occurrences (2.5%) -53.8% -49.4% to -40.6%: 5 occurrences (1.4%) -40.6% to -31.8%: 3 occurrences (0.8%) -31.8% to -22.9%: 4 occurrences (1.1%) -27.3% -22.9% to -14.1%: 24 occurrences (6.8%) -14.1% to -5.3%: 50 occurrences (14.1%) -5.3% to +3.5%: 151 occurrences (42.5%) -0.9% +3.5% to +12.4%: 51 occurrences (14.4%) +12.4% to +21.2%: 23 occurrences (6.5%) +21.2% to +30.0%: 11 occurrences (3.1%) 25.6% +30.0% to +38.8%: 8 occurrences (2.3%) +38.8% to +47.6%: 6 occurrences (1.7%) +47.6% to +56.5%: 4 occurrences (1.1%) 52.0% +56.5% to +65.3%: 5 occurrences (1.4%) +65.3% to +74.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +74.1% to +82.9%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 78.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.4% 28.5% Model-free reality across 355 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 18.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-4.37) and kurtosis (65.61).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.5% 40.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (33 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 84.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 0.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 39.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-100% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +19.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +82.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -58.2%