Finance

CART Move Probability $50.32 -0.42 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CART Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
6.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($52.84) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
2.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.20x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.7%
$48.94 — $51.70

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-12.1% to -10.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -11.3% -10.5% to -8.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -8.9% to -7.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -7.3% to -5.7%: 7 occurrences (1.3%) -6.5% -5.7% to -4.1%: 11 occurrences (2.1%) -4.1% to -2.5%: 49 occurrences (9.4%) -2.5% to -0.8%: 95 occurrences (18.2%) -1.7% -0.8% to +0.8%: 163 occurrences (31.3%) +0.8% to +2.4%: 110 occurrences (21.1%) +2.4% to +4.0%: 45 occurrences (8.6%) 3.2% +4.0% to +5.6%: 24 occurrences (4.6%) +5.6% to +7.2%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) +7.2% to +8.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 8.0% +8.8% to +10.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +10.4% to +12.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +12.0% to +13.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 12.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 6.3% 2.9% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 3.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.39) and kurtosis (3.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 7.5% 3.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 5.4% 2.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (167 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 43.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-37% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +13.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -12.1%