Finance

CART Move Probability $50.32 -0.42 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($52.84) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.82x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.3%
$45.16 — $55.48

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.5% to -25.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -27.0% -25.4% to -22.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -22.4% to -19.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -19.3% to -16.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -17.8% -16.2% to -13.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -13.2% to -10.1%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -10.1% to -7.0%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -8.6% -7.0% to -4.0%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -4.0% to -0.9%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -0.9% to +2.2%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) 0.6% +2.2% to +5.2%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +5.2% to +8.3%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) +8.3% to +11.4%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) 9.8% +11.4% to +14.4%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +14.4% to +17.5%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +17.5% to +20.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 19.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.6% 36.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.39) and kurtosis (3.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 63.4% 31.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 62.2% 35.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (156 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 43.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-37% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +20.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.5%