Finance

CAH Move Probability $257.65 +0.15 (+0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
47.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($270.53) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.67x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.2%
$241.57 — $273.73

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-13.4% to -10.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -12.1% -10.7% to -8.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -8.0% to -5.4%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -5.4% to -2.7%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) -4.0% -2.7% to -0.0%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) -0.0% to +2.7%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) +2.7% to +5.4%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) 4.0% +5.4% to +8.0%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +8.0% to +10.7%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +10.7% to +13.4%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 12.1% +13.4% to +16.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +16.1% to +18.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +18.7% to +21.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 20.1% +21.4% to +24.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +24.1% to +26.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +26.8% to +29.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 28.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 47.4% 28.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.19) and kurtosis (12.69).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 43.4% 21.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 47.4% 26.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (346 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 26.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 23.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -13.4%