Finance

BWIN Move Probability $31.93 +0.03 (+0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
55.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($33.52) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.81x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.7%
$27.87 — $35.98

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.3% to -31.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -34.5% -31.6% to -26.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -26.0% to -20.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -20.3% to -14.6%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -17.4% -14.6% to -8.9%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) -8.9% to -3.2%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) -3.2% to +2.5%: 112 occurrences (22.0%) -0.4% +2.5% to +8.2%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) +8.2% to +13.9%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +13.9% to +19.6%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) 16.7% +19.6% to +25.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +25.2% to +30.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +30.9% to +36.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 33.8% +36.6% to +42.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +42.3% to +48.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +48.0% to +53.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 50.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 55.3% 30.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 22.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.52) and kurtosis (6.9).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.1% 35.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 53.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 2.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 41.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-96% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +53.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.3%