Finance

BTU Move Probability $22.44 -0.22 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
14.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($23.56) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
8.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.83x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.6%
$21.63 — $23.25

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-12.2% to -10.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -11.4% -10.6% to -9.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -9.0% to -7.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -7.4% to -5.8%: 11 occurrences (2.1%) -6.6% -5.8% to -4.2%: 25 occurrences (4.8%) -4.2% to -2.6%: 56 occurrences (10.7%) -2.6% to -1.0%: 93 occurrences (17.9%) -1.8% -1.0% to +0.6%: 112 occurrences (21.5%) +0.6% to +2.2%: 83 occurrences (15.9%) +2.2% to +3.8%: 67 occurrences (12.9%) 3.0% +3.8% to +5.4%: 23 occurrences (4.4%) +5.4% to +7.0%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +7.0% to +8.6%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) 7.8% +8.6% to +10.2%: 11 occurrences (2.1%) +10.2% to +11.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +11.8% to +13.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 12.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 14.8% 8.1% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.03) and kurtosis (0.93).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 17.7% 8.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 12.2% 8.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (180 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 57.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 37.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 47.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +4.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +13.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -12.2%