Finance

BTU Move Probability $22.44 -0.22 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($23.56) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.95x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.5%
$19.41 — $25.47

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-35.1% to -29.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -32.1% -29.2% to -23.2%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -23.2% to -17.3%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -17.3% to -11.4%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) -14.3% -11.4% to -5.5%: 95 occurrences (18.7%) -5.5% to +0.5%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) +0.5% to +6.4%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) 3.4% +6.4% to +12.3%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) +12.3% to +18.2%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +18.2% to +24.2%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) 21.2% +24.2% to +30.1%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +30.1% to +36.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +36.0% to +41.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 39.0% +41.9% to +47.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +47.9% to +53.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +53.8% to +59.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 56.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.5% 34.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 34.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.03) and kurtosis (0.93).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.8% 35.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.2% 41.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (168 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 57.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 37.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 47.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +18.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +59.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -35.1%