Finance

BITX Move Probability $19.47 +0.37 (+1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
50.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($20.44) at least once during 3 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 3
Expiration Close Probability
25.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 3-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.97x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.0%
$17.53 — $21.41

Historical 3-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 3-day percentage returns over 519 historical windows (2024-09-13 to 2026-10-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-35.3% to -30.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -32.9% -30.5% to -25.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -25.8% to -21.0%: 7 occurrences (1.3%) -21.0% to -16.3%: 12 occurrences (2.3%) -18.7% -16.3% to -11.5%: 21 occurrences (4.0%) -11.5% to -6.8%: 59 occurrences (11.4%) -6.8% to -2.1%: 100 occurrences (19.3%) -4.4% -2.1% to +2.7%: 128 occurrences (24.7%) +2.7% to +7.4%: 97 occurrences (18.7%) +7.4% to +12.2%: 39 occurrences (7.5%) 9.8% +12.2% to +16.9%: 30 occurrences (5.8%) +16.9% to +21.7%: 14 occurrences (2.7%) +21.7% to +26.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 24.0% +26.4% to +31.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +31.2% to +35.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +35.9% to +40.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 38.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 50.5% 25.6% Model-free reality across 519 historical 3-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.13) and kurtosis (2.01).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 62.4% 31.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 45.1% 22.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (324 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 91.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 69.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 57.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-24% vs baseline)

3-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (3d): +40.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (3d): -35.3%