Finance

BITX Move Probability $19.35 +0.25 (+1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
76.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($20.32) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.96x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.5%
$15.19 — $23.51

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-13 to 2026-10-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-57.4% to -46.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -52.2% -46.9% to -36.4%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -36.4% to -26.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -26.0% to -15.5%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -20.7% -15.5% to -5.0%: 109 occurrences (21.5%) -5.0% to +5.5%: 121 occurrences (23.8%) +5.5% to +16.0%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) 10.7% +16.0% to +26.4%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +26.4% to +36.9%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +36.9% to +47.4%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 42.2% +47.4% to +57.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +57.9% to +68.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +68.4% to +78.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 73.6% +78.8% to +89.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +89.3% to +99.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +99.8% to +110.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 105.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 76.2% 38.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 39.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.13) and kurtosis (2.01).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.1% 41.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 71.6% 29.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (313 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 91.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 69.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 57.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-24% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +27.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -23.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +110.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -57.4%