Finance

BILL Move Probability $49.03 -0.05 (-0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($51.48) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.09x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.9%
$41.73 — $56.33

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-45.6% to -38.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -42.2% -38.8% to -32.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -32.1% to -25.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -25.3% to -18.5%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -21.9% -18.5% to -11.8%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -11.8% to -5.0%: 91 occurrences (17.9%) -5.0% to +1.7%: 129 occurrences (25.4%) -1.6% +1.7% to +8.5%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) +8.5% to +15.3%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) +15.3% to +22.0%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) 18.7% +22.0% to +28.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +28.8% to +35.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +35.6% to +42.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 39.0% +42.3% to +49.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +49.1% to +55.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +55.9% to +62.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 59.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.0% 31.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 6.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.31) and kurtosis (36.02).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.3% 37.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 63.3% 34.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (346 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 63.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 41.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-27% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +62.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -45.6%