Finance

BHR Move Probability $1.39 +0.00 (+0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
59.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.46) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.26x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.3%
$1.22 — $1.56

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-32.8% to -27.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -30.3% -27.9% to -23.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -23.1% to -18.2%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -18.2% to -13.3%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -15.8% -13.3% to -8.5%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) -8.5% to -3.6%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) -3.6% to +1.2%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) -1.2% +1.2% to +6.1%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) +6.1% to +10.9%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +10.9% to +15.8%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) 13.4% +15.8% to +20.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +20.7% to +25.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +25.5% to +30.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 27.9% +30.4% to +35.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +35.2% to +40.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +40.1% to +44.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 42.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 59.3% 26.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.26) and kurtosis (8.55).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 69.2% 34.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 70.8% 31.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (96 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 52.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 88.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.0%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+69% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +44.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -32.8%