Finance

ASND Move Probability $238.83 +4.50 (+1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
56.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($250.77) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.91x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.2%
$216.85 — $260.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.2% to -14.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -15.7% -14.3% to -11.3%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -11.3% to -8.4%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -8.4% to -5.5%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -6.9% -5.5% to -2.5%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -2.5% to +0.4%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +0.4% to +3.4%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) 1.9% +3.4% to +6.3%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +6.3% to +9.2%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +9.2% to +12.2%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) 10.7% +12.2% to +15.1%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +15.1% to +18.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +18.1% to +21.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 19.5% +21.0% to +24.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +24.0% to +26.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +26.9% to +29.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 28.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 56.7% 29.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.42) and kurtosis (1.79).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 59.6% 29.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.4% 30.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (190 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 39.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 36.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -17.2%