Finance

APPN Move Probability $48.65 +4.21 (+9.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($51.08) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.11x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.4%
$42.12 — $55.18

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.4% to -23.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -25.7% -23.0% to -17.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -17.6% to -12.2%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -12.2% to -6.7%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) -9.4% -6.7% to -1.3%: 100 occurrences (19.7%) -1.3% to +4.1%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +4.1% to +9.6%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) 6.8% +9.6% to +15.0%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +15.0% to +20.4%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +20.4% to +25.9%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 23.1% +25.9% to +31.3%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +31.3% to +36.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +36.7% to +42.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 39.4% +42.1% to +47.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +47.6% to +53.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +53.0% to +58.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 55.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.8% 29.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.13) and kurtosis (7.57).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.6% 35.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 70.6% 41.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (204 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 57.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 75.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.8%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +58.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.4%