Finance

APA Move Probability $49.64 -0.25 (-0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to APA Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
9.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($52.12) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
3.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.50x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.1%
$48.08 — $51.20

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.5% to -14.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -15.4% -14.3% to -12.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -12.0% to -9.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -9.8% to -7.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -8.7% -7.6% to -5.4%: 10 occurrences (1.9%) -5.4% to -3.2%: 29 occurrences (5.6%) -3.2% to -1.0%: 119 occurrences (22.8%) -2.1% -1.0% to +1.2%: 178 occurrences (34.2%) +1.2% to +3.4%: 112 occurrences (21.5%) +3.4% to +5.7%: 52 occurrences (10.0%) 4.6% +5.7% to +7.9%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) +7.9% to +10.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +10.1% to +12.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 11.2% +12.3% to +14.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +14.5% to +16.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +16.7% to +18.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 17.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 9.6% 3.8% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 2.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.65) and kurtosis (5.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 12.0% 6.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 10.1% 6.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (129 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 49.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 29.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-41% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +18.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -16.5%