Finance

APA Move Probability $49.64 -0.25 (-0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($52.12) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.85x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.7%
$43.82 — $55.46

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-32.5% to -28.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -30.4% -28.2% to -23.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -23.8% to -19.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -19.4% to -15.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -17.2% -15.0% to -10.6%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -10.6% to -6.3%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) -6.3% to -1.9%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -4.1% -1.9% to +2.5%: 90 occurrences (17.7%) +2.5% to +6.9%: 96 occurrences (18.9%) +6.9% to +11.3%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) 9.1% +11.3% to +15.7%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) +15.7% to +20.0%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +20.0% to +24.4%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 22.2% +24.4% to +28.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +28.8% to +33.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +33.2% to +37.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 35.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.7% 38.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.65) and kurtosis (5.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 67.7% 33.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.1% 32.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (123 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 49.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 29.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-41% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +37.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -32.5%