Finance

ANVS Move Probability $1.01 +0.02 (+1.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
75.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.06) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.58x
You are 2.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±25.3%
$0.75 — $1.27

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-44.0% to -31.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -37.9% -31.9% to -19.7%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -19.7% to -7.6%: 127 occurrences (25.0%) -7.6% to +4.5%: 123 occurrences (24.2%) -1.5% +4.5% to +16.7%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +16.7% to +28.8%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +28.8% to +40.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 34.9% +40.9% to +53.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +53.1% to +65.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +65.2% to +77.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 71.3% +77.3% to +89.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +89.5% to +101.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +101.6% to +113.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 107.7% +113.7% to +125.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +125.9% to +138.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +138.0% to +150.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 144.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 75.6% 29.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 6.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.33) and kurtosis (45.11).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.7% 42.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.9% 17.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (276 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 107.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 65.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 75.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-39% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -5.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +29.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -27.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +150.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -44.0%