Finance

ALTO Move Probability $3.59 +0.04 (+1.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ALTO Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
79.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($3.77) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.91x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.4%
$2.89 — $4.29

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.9% to -27.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -32.1% -27.3% to -17.8%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -17.8% to -8.2%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -8.2% to +1.3%: 123 occurrences (24.2%) -3.4% +1.3% to +10.9%: 128 occurrences (25.2%) +10.9% to +20.4%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +20.4% to +30.0%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) 25.2% +30.0% to +39.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +39.6% to +49.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +49.1% to +58.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 53.9% +58.7% to +68.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +68.2% to +77.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +77.8% to +87.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 82.6% +87.3% to +96.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +96.9% to +106.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +106.4% to +116.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 111.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 79.1% 41.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.44) and kurtosis (22.59).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.2% 40.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.0% 24.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (91 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 82.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 34.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 59.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-58% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -18.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +116.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.9%