Finance

ALB Move Probability $94.46 -1.29 (-1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ALB Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($99.18) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
40.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.6%
$81.62 — $107.30

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.2% to -31.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -33.8% -31.5% to -26.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -26.8% to -22.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -22.1% to -17.4%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -19.7% -17.4% to -12.7%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -12.7% to -8.0%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -8.0% to -3.3%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -5.6% -3.3% to +1.4%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) +1.4% to +6.1%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +6.1% to +10.8%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) 8.5% +10.8% to +15.5%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +15.5% to +20.2%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) +20.2% to +24.9%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 22.5% +24.9% to +29.6%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +29.6% to +34.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +34.3% to +39.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 36.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.1% 40.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.04) and kurtosis (2.02).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 72.0% 36.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 71.4% 71.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (14 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 57.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-55% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +39.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.2%