Finance

AKTX Move Probability $9.57 +0.40 (+4.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
61.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.05) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.05x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±94.4%
$0.54 — $18.60

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-96.5% to +380.7%: 506 occurrences (99.6%) 142.1% +380.7% to +857.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +857.8% to +1334.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1334.9% to +1812.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1573.4% +1812.0% to +2289.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2289.1% to +2766.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2766.2% to +3243.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 3004.8% +3243.3% to +3720.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +3720.5% to +4197.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +4197.6% to +4674.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 4436.1% +4674.7% to +5151.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +5151.8% to +5628.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +5628.9% to +6106.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 5867.5% +6106.0% to +6583.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +6583.1% to +7060.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +7060.2% to +7537.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 7298.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 61.0% 29.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 9.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.67) and kurtosis (180.77).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 95.9% 47.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 70.1% 37.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (234 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 400.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 105.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 79.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-74% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -7.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +39.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -32.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +7537.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -96.5%