Finance

AFRM Move Probability $73.46 -0.43 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
75.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($77.13) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
40.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.87x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.4%
$61.43 — $85.49

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-42.7% to -36.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -39.6% -36.5% to -30.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -30.4% to -24.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -24.2% to -18.1%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -21.1% -18.1% to -11.9%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) -11.9% to -5.7%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -5.7% to +0.4%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) -2.7% +0.4% to +6.6%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) +6.6% to +12.7%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +12.7% to +18.9%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) 15.8% +18.9% to +25.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +25.0% to +31.2%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +31.2% to +37.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 34.3% +37.3% to +43.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +43.5% to +49.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +49.7% to +55.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 52.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 75.6% 40.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.26) and kurtosis (3.27).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.6% 38.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 74.5% 36.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (396 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 69.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 63.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 56.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +24.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +55.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -42.7%