Finance

ACI Move Probability $12.81 +0.29 (+2.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ACI Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
37.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($13.46) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
12.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.95x
You are 3.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.0%
$11.79 — $13.84

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-13 to 2026-10-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-21.1% to -19.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -20.0% -19.0% to -16.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -16.8% to -14.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -14.7% to -12.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -13.7% -12.6% to -10.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -10.5% to -8.4%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -8.4% to -6.3%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -7.3% -6.3% to -4.1%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -4.1% to -2.0%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) -2.0% to +0.1%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) -1.0% +0.1% to +2.2%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) +2.2% to +4.3%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) +4.3% to +6.5%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 5.4% +6.5% to +8.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +8.6% to +10.7%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +10.7% to +12.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 11.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 37.2% 12.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.46) and kurtosis (33.95).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 54.4% 27.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 45.0% 11.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (302 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 34.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 32.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 25.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +5.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +12.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -21.1%