Finance

ZNTL Move Probability $2.37 -0.02 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.49) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.35x
You are 2.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±24.7%
$1.79 — $2.95

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-41.9% to -29.0%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -35.5% -29.0% to -16.2%: 90 occurrences (17.7%) -16.2% to -3.4%: 142 occurrences (28.0%) -3.4% to +9.4%: 124 occurrences (24.4%) 3.0% +9.4% to +22.2%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) +22.2% to +35.0%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +35.0% to +47.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 41.4% +47.8% to +60.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +60.6% to +73.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +73.4% to +86.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 79.8% +86.2% to +99.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +99.0% to +111.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +111.8% to +124.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 118.2% +124.6% to +137.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +137.4% to +150.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +150.2% to +163.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 156.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.4% 31.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.44) and kurtosis (9.74).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.3% 42.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 75.2% 30.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (339 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 104.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 75.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 83.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-28% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +27.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -23.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +163.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -41.9%