Finance

XNET Move Probability $3.89 -0.11 (-2.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to XNET Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
70.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.08) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.86x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.6%
$3.17 — $4.61

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-40.4% to -32.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -36.6% -32.9% to -25.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -25.3% to -17.8%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -17.8% to -10.2%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -14.0% -10.2% to -2.7%: 102 occurrences (20.1%) -2.7% to +4.8%: 120 occurrences (23.6%) +4.8% to +12.4%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) 8.6% +12.4% to +19.9%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +19.9% to +27.5%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +27.5% to +35.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 31.3% +35.0% to +42.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +42.6% to +50.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +50.1% to +57.7%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 53.9% +57.7% to +65.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +65.2% to +72.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +72.7% to +80.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 76.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 70.3% 37.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.7) and kurtosis (6.99).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.3% 39.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.1% 26.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (234 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 78.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 54.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-40% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +80.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -40.4%