Finance

XENE Move Probability $35.98 -0.28 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
53.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($37.78) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
25.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.08x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.9%
$31.33 — $40.63

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-39.1% to -33.5%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -36.3% -33.5% to -27.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -27.9% to -22.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -22.3% to -16.7%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -19.5% -16.7% to -11.1%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -11.1% to -5.5%: 82 occurrences (16.1%) -5.5% to +0.1%: 149 occurrences (29.3%) -2.7% +0.1% to +5.7%: 110 occurrences (21.7%) +5.7% to +11.3%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +11.3% to +16.9%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) 14.1% +16.9% to +22.5%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +22.5% to +28.1%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +28.1% to +33.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 30.9% +33.7% to +39.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +39.3% to +44.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +44.9% to +50.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 47.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 53.1% 25.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.5) and kurtosis (60.89).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.6% 35.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 49.5% 23.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (378 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 54.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 40.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-26% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +50.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -39.1%