Finance

WWW Move Probability $20.12 -0.02 (-0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
68.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($21.13) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.94x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.6%
$17.19 — $23.05

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-42.1% to -36.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -39.1% -36.1% to -30.2%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -30.2% to -24.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -24.2% to -18.2%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -21.2% -18.2% to -12.3%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -12.3% to -6.3%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -6.3% to -0.3%: 108 occurrences (21.3%) -3.3% -0.3% to +5.6%: 111 occurrences (21.9%) +5.6% to +11.6%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) +11.6% to +17.6%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) 14.6% +17.6% to +23.5%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +23.5% to +29.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +29.5% to +35.4%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 32.5% +35.4% to +41.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +41.4% to +47.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +47.4% to +53.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 50.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 68.3% 35.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 15.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.28) and kurtosis (18.21).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.8% 36.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 59.7% 22.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (181 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 61.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 31.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-48% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +19.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +53.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -42.1%