Finance

WGO Move Probability $25.62 +2.44 (+10.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to WGO Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
50.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($26.90) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
23.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.17x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.7%
$22.62 — $28.62

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.6% to -25.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -26.8% -25.0% to -21.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -21.4% to -17.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -17.9% to -14.3%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -16.1% -14.3% to -10.7%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -10.7% to -7.1%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) -7.1% to -3.5%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -5.3% -3.5% to +0.1%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +0.1% to +3.6%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +3.6% to +7.2%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) 5.4% +7.2% to +10.8%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +10.8% to +14.4%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +14.4% to +18.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) 16.2% +18.0% to +21.6%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +21.6% to +25.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +25.2% to +28.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 26.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 50.8% 23.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 16.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.2) and kurtosis (9.29).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 67.7% 33.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 57.3% 27.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (314 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 49.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 58.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 34.3%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+18% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +28.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.6%