Finance

VOYG Move Probability $23.96 +3.62 (+17.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($25.16) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.42x
You are 2.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.7%
$18.77 — $29.15

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 341 historical windows (2025-06-11 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-43.5% to -34.4%: 7 occurrences (2.1%) -38.9% -34.4% to -25.3%: 26 occurrences (7.6%) -25.3% to -16.2%: 58 occurrences (17.0%) -16.2% to -7.1%: 59 occurrences (17.3%) -11.6% -7.1% to +2.0%: 73 occurrences (21.4%) +2.0% to +11.1%: 34 occurrences (10.0%) +11.1% to +20.2%: 28 occurrences (8.2%) 15.7% +20.2% to +29.3%: 15 occurrences (4.4%) +29.3% to +38.4%: 15 occurrences (4.4%) +38.4% to +47.5%: 4 occurrences (1.2%) 43.0% +47.5% to +56.6%: 7 occurrences (2.1%) +56.6% to +65.7%: 5 occurrences (1.5%) +65.7% to +74.8%: 4 occurrences (1.2%) 70.3% +74.8% to +83.9%: 4 occurrences (1.2%) +83.9% to +93.0%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) +93.0% to +102.1%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 97.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.9% 30.5% Model-free reality across 341 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 40.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.07) and kurtosis (0.41).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.2% 41.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.7% 29.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (286 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 92.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 102.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 76.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +33.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +102.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -43.5%