Finance

TXMD Move Probability $1.90 +0.02 (+1.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to TXMD Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
51.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.99) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.87x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±22.1%
$1.48 — $2.32

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-43.6% to -36.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -40.1% -36.6% to -29.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -29.6% to -22.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -22.6% to -15.6%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -19.1% -15.6% to -8.6%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -8.6% to -1.6%: 145 occurrences (28.6%) -1.6% to +5.4%: 138 occurrences (27.2%) 1.9% +5.4% to +12.4%: 50 occurrences (9.9%) +12.4% to +19.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +19.4% to +26.4%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 22.9% +26.4% to +33.4%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +33.4% to +40.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +40.4% to +47.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 43.9% +47.4% to +54.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +54.4% to +61.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +61.4% to +68.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 64.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 51.3% 27.4% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 7.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (2.27) and kurtosis (37.45).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.5% 41.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 30.8% 24.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (78 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 93.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 23.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 55.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-75% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +68.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -43.6%