Finance

TXG Move Probability $75.48 +4.09 (+5.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to TXG Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
77.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($79.25) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
48.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.61x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±17.3%
$62.41 — $88.55

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.4% to -28.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -31.6% -28.8% to -23.2%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -23.2% to -17.5%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -17.5% to -11.9%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -14.7% -11.9% to -6.3%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -6.3% to -0.6%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) -0.6% to +5.0%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) 2.2% +5.0% to +10.6%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) +10.6% to +16.3%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +16.3% to +21.9%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) 19.1% +21.9% to +27.5%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +27.5% to +33.2%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +33.2% to +38.8%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) 36.0% +38.8% to +44.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +44.4% to +50.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +50.1% to +55.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 52.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 77.8% 48.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.33) and kurtosis (3.97).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 77.8% 38.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 83.0% 56.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (294 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 73.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 98.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 62.4%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +4.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +26.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +55.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.4%