TWAV Move Probability $1.49 +0.02 (+1.4%)
Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.
Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.56) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.93x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±45.6%
$0.81 — $2.17
Historical 14-Day Return Distribution
Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.
Historical returns
Target move zone (+5.0%+)
Target threshold bin
Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models
Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.
| Model / Methodology | Touch Probability | Expiration Close Probability | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) | 74.6% | 38.6% | Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows. |
| Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) | — | 0.4% | Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (11.55) and kurtosis (198.16). |
| Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) | 91.5% | 45.7% | Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks). |
| Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) | 75.6% | 35.6% | Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (303 matching periods). |
Underlying Volatility Profile
Volatility Metrics
- 1-Year Annualized HV: 193.7%
- Recent 20-Day HV: 92.3%
- Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 71.2%
- Vol Trend: Compressed (-52% vs baseline)
14-Day Return Quantiles
- Median Return: -0.8%
- Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +36.2%
- Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.7%
- Max Historical Gain (14d): +1103.6%
- Max Historical Loss (14d): -54.8%