Finance

TRC Move Probability $16.06 -0.11 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
31.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.86) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
13.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.30x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.8%
$15.13 — $16.99

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-12.1% to -10.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -11.3% -10.5% to -9.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -9.0% to -7.4%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -7.4% to -5.8%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -6.6% -5.8% to -4.2%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -4.2% to -2.6%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -2.6% to -1.0%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) -1.8% -1.0% to +0.6%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) +0.6% to +2.1%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) +2.1% to +3.7%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) 2.9% +3.7% to +5.3%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +5.3% to +6.9%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +6.9% to +8.5%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 7.7% +8.5% to +10.1%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +10.1% to +11.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +11.7% to +13.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 12.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 31.7% 13.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 13.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.08) and kurtosis (3.48).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 39.9% 19.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 30.2% 11.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (308 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 24.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 18.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 16.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-24% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +13.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -12.1%