Finance

TRAW Move Probability $0.38 -0.01 (-2.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
70.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.40) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.09x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±35.9%
$0.24 — $0.51

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-69.3% to -50.7%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -60.0% -50.7% to -32.1%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -32.1% to -13.5%: 134 occurrences (26.4%) -13.5% to +5.1%: 130 occurrences (25.6%) -4.2% +5.1% to +23.7%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) +23.7% to +42.3%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +42.3% to +60.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) 51.6% +60.9% to +79.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +79.5% to +98.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +98.1% to +116.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 107.4% +116.7% to +135.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +135.3% to +153.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +153.9% to +172.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 163.2% +172.5% to +191.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +191.1% to +209.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +209.7% to +228.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 219.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 70.3% 33.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.16) and kurtosis (53.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 89.2% 44.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.4% 42.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (254 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 152.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 88.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 84.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-42% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -8.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +40.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -36.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +228.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -69.3%