Finance

TOVX Move Probability $0.20 -0.01 (-5.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
70.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.33x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±38.7%
$0.12 — $0.28

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-70.1% to -16.6%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) -43.3% -16.6% to +36.9%: 376 occurrences (74.0%) +36.9% to +90.5%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +90.5% to +144.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 117.2% +144.0% to +197.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +197.5% to +251.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +251.0% to +304.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 277.8% +304.5% to +358.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +358.0% to +411.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +411.5% to +465.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 438.3% +465.1% to +518.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +518.6% to +572.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +572.1% to +625.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 598.9% +625.6% to +679.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +679.1% to +732.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +732.6% to +786.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 759.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 70.7% 30.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 6.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (5.14) and kurtosis (64.99).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.0% 45.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 77.9% 46.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (154 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 164.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 67.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 92.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-59% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +786.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -70.1%