Finance

TONT Move Probability $10.93 +0.03 (+0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
0.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.48) at least once during 14 trading days.
Expiration Close Probability
0.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.00x
You are 1.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±0.5%
$10.88 — $10.98

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 465 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-0.9% to -0.8%: 5 occurrences (1.1%) -0.9% -0.8% to -0.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -0.6% to -0.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -0.5% to -0.3%: 8 occurrences (1.7%) -0.4% -0.3% to -0.2%: 12 occurrences (2.6%) -0.2% to -0.1%: 29 occurrences (6.2%) -0.1% to +0.1%: 136 occurrences (29.2%) 0.0% +0.1% to +0.2%: 51 occurrences (11.0%) +0.2% to +0.4%: 62 occurrences (13.3%) +0.4% to +0.5%: 36 occurrences (7.7%) 0.5% +0.5% to +0.7%: 43 occurrences (9.2%) +0.7% to +0.8%: 42 occurrences (9.0%) +0.8% to +1.0%: 26 occurrences (5.6%) 0.9% +1.0% to +1.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +1.1% to +1.2%: 10 occurrences (2.2%) +1.2% to +1.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 1.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 0.0% 0.0% Model-free reality across 465 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 100.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.55) and kurtosis (21.74).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 0.0% 0.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (143 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 2.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 2.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 0.6%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+34% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +0.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -0.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +1.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -0.9%